Shanahananigans… again.
Media - - Posted on July, 26 at 10:14 am by Aussie Bob
First we had Shanahan in denial. Last August Johnny won one poll in isolation (his last since then, by the way) and Dennis rang the bells with “election-winning margin” talk. I wonder whether the first birthday of that little blip will be noted on August 8?
Then there was a mysterious disappeared article in December, just before Christmas (go on, try and find it!), where Dennis set out the winning schedule for Howard, involving immediate, stinging attacks on Rudd which would see him on the deck, pollwize, by February. Hmmm… that didn’t work, did it?
Over the next few months we had Rudd’s Character, his Childhood, Anzac Day shanahananigans, Burkegate, even Tony Mokbel got a guernsey. But these went the way of all little pieces of paper left unguarded on a desperate desktop: blown off on the first whiff of a rational political breeze, into the deserved oblivion of unlinked archives.
Lately Dennis’ mind has turned to barbeques. Overcooking the metaphors, he told us how Rudd’s onions would be trumped by the Old Dog sneaking around through the legs of the Battlers hunting for table scraps. Well, that one’s best forgotten.
Most recently we’ve been treated to the “Preferred PM” theory: that once Howard got near Rudd as PPM then it was all over for the Young Pup as the Old Dog bit him on the arse, just as Latham copped a nip on the cojones in 2004…. or something like that, anyway.
In his latest burst of feverish activity, Dennis has been in the basement again, shuffling those little pieces of paper around his lonely table at News Ltd. And he’s come up with yet another theory to explain Kevin Rudd’s stubborn lead in the polls: the Heavens are conspiring against John Howard. Read on… if you dare…
In today’s effort Dennis tells us:
JOHN Howard can’t put a foot right and Kevin Rudd can’t seem to make a mistake.
Every time the Prime Minister even looks like getting a break, the Labor leader trumps him by luck, timing or simply adopting the Government’s policy.
He mentions the stumbles and fumbles of His Hero: forgetting names and literally falling over. He says Howard was “pilloried” for these (forgetting to mention that it was not Rudd who doing the pillorying, quite the opposite actually), but when Rudd stumbled and fumbled, he received a free kick, presumably from the gutless lefty idiots of the media, the non-News Ltd. media, that is.
He proceeded onto the mug punter’s luck of Rudd to schedule - weeks ago - a Housing Unaffordability Summit, just as the official figures confirm house are, well… unaffordable. He rails against the fickle finger of fate, allowing the prospect of an interest rate rise built on the back of the Howard tax cuts and cheap Chinese imports. It’s all so rotten, there must be a Guiding Hand involved somewhere. The prospect of God being on Labor’s side is too horrible to contemplate: but it must be contemplated.
But all is not lost. Dennis triumphantly reckons things might get so bad that people will flock back to Dear Leader in very fear of what St. Kevin might do if he gets his hands on the lolly jar of the National Economy.
Well, Dennis, I guess in politics you make your own luck. If you give generous tax cuts, if you pay off your own debts and force others to fund your indulgence by introducing a GST, expect interest rate rises. If you forget your candidates’ names, expect to be pilloried (but not by smarty pants Kevin). If you write cheques out like raffle tickets for first home buyers, then maybe you should expect house prices to rise to accommodate your (and their) largesse.
Dennis’ solution - the negative prospect of my negative prospect is my positive - doesn’t quite rank up there with the sausage sizzle, Old Dogs and an attempted shameless hijacking of our venerable day in April, but youse’d have to agree, it’s not bad for a slow Thursday in July.
We look forward to the next installment of Shanahananigans with bated breath.
Posted in Media |
July 26th, 2007 at 10:53 am
AB,
Let’s not forget the “Labor Budget” theory …
Dear Dennis came close to wetting his pants following this year’s budget, telling anyone within spitting distance how it was going to wedge Rudd and bring love and adoration from the masses.
Except, you know, it didn’t.
July 26th, 2007 at 11:03 am
Well said AB.
July 26th, 2007 at 11:15 am
Not sure if Shannanigans has two things quite right.
Ther will be a lot of political pressure for the Reserve Bank not to raise interest rates despite what the economists tell us.
Not sure that if there is another shocker of a result in the next quarter that the RBA will have any choice but to raise rates. Can’t see how a rate rise will help the conservatives after Howard’s performance in the last election campaign and I’m sure the ALP will remind them.
The election bribes will be in the next quarter’s figures and a lot of statutory Authorities charges rose from July 1 so it will be hard to see how Howard and Costello will be able to avoid the fallout.
July 26th, 2007 at 11:25 am
Good stuff again on Shanas, AB.
Actually, the luck cycle might not be so far out, even allowing for what you say that you make your own luck. Howard’s career has been a rollercoaster of luck.
To get into the Fraser Ministry after only 18 months in parliament was an extraordinary break - certainly little to do with a ‘rising star’ aura as we might witness today with Turnbull. It was probably that the NSW libs were under-represented on the front bench after the 75 landslide and there wasn’t much talent to choose from.
Then, after just 2 years to get the Treasury! Fraser has since explained that with an election due he needed someone, anyone, to deflect attention away from Lynch’s fall, and the numbers compelled an NSW member.
Things went downhill a bit from his Treasury stint, not exactly a roaring success as Costello confirmed, and the opposition years
culminating in the Peacock rivalry (which Howard started) and the Joh for PM campaign.
Still the wilderness years were not entirely wasted. Being consistently given industrial relations allowed him to establish a reputation for consistency and predictability (not insight, but they can be confused).
His luck turned for the better when Dolly became Leader. The libs had already had one disaster with Hewson and couldn’t afford another. Safe John seemed the best option for the desperates.
Then his luck turned even more for the better with the arrival of Hanson. Then came Tampa and 9/11. Then the Latham-Greens deal and interest-rate scare.
But it couldn’t last forever, which is what Shanas is lamenting. Perhaps the turn of bad luck now plaguing him is Mephistopholes come to claim his prize.
July 26th, 2007 at 12:00 pm
Who knows, maybe there is some Karma involved. As Don stated he was lucky to get in the Fraser cabinet, but even I grudgingly admire Howard’s perseverance when opposition leader. He was derided, pillored (remember the headline 16% popularity, why this man bothers in the Bulletin?) etc. So I wondered when Howard had the ‘lucky’ events of 2001 when he was basically down the gurgler but with Tampa and 9/11 won the election whether he was cashing in on all those depressing days.
So who knows, after exploiting all that negative energy to win maybe the luck has run out.
July 26th, 2007 at 12:32 pm
One thing is for sure about John Howard: he’ll weather any storm, bow down before any insult, swallow any humiliation to get what he wants.
Tony Jones on Lateline last night was just going through the motions with his “incisive” questioning. It was all a bit of a yawn, really. Costello hates you? Tell me something I don’t know. Interest rates will hit the Battlers hardest? Yawn. You’re getting old Prime minister? So do we all, Tony. As I said, going through the motions. It seemed as if Howard, who can normally talk continuously while breathing through his ears (try it… it’s not easy!), actually took pity on Tony and shut up every now and again to give him a go. The minders have told him to go for the “Beseiged, Needs Sympathy” routine.
We’re looking at someone who is the complete political animal, totally devoted to achieving what he wants. That he’s cruelled the ground for the party he claims to love by crushing any and all dissent and rivaly for the leadership is a small matter.
To beat him Rudd has to be equally ruthless, keep to discipline and tough out the Howard strong points, while exploiting his weak ones.
You can’t win every battle. You have to win the war.
July 26th, 2007 at 1:03 pm
“The minders have told him to go for the “Beseiged, Needs Sympathy” routine.”
Spot on. The violins are bought and stored. Hyacinth will be on Australian Story, soon.
“Yes ,his hearing causes him so much angst”. The little boy with the same disabilty who he rings personally. His extraordinary abilty to whether the cruel barbs directed at him.
Buy your chuck bucket now and avoid the rush.
July 26th, 2007 at 1:13 pm
AB, yes, I have also been wondering lately if Howard is subtly trying to milk the sympathy vote. Was that fall really an accident? At any rate, if the sympathy vote is Howard’s strategy now, then it really does underline just how far Howard will go in order to hang onto power. He will do ANYTHING.
I also wonder how long Rudd can keep going with the small target strategy. Can Rudd really count on antipathy towards Howard and his newfound run of bad luck to steal a victory at the end of the year?
July 26th, 2007 at 1:25 pm
Good article AB.
Poor Howard just can’t take a trick these days and Rudd has charmed luck, nothing will stick to him.
Hmmm, seems I recall the same being said about those underdogs of Labor, Beazley and Latham. Isn’t Howard’s charmed life as PM the reason they call him ‘Teflon John’?
And his health? Not good either, bad hearing, just like my Dad, only Dad refuses to hear anything about it being a disability!
Poor, poor John, it’s not winning that matters, it’s doing your best that counts, only trouble is your best, is our worst.
No Happy Returns for your Birthday.
July 26th, 2007 at 4:35 pm
I see Andrew Bolt has called for Howard to step down, essentially because the punters just aren’t listening to him anymore. My tip is he will go anytime now and we’ll have a Rudd Costello election contest. My reasoning? Kevin Sheedy!
July 26th, 2007 at 5:09 pm
Let me put it to you another way. Suppose Howard does a Sheeds and stands down and Costello takes over. He announces that Australia will be pulling its troops out of Iraq and Afghanistan at the end of September, in order to concentrate on problems close to home. How would you like to be the Rudd Opposition saying we should pull out of Iraq but stay the course in Afghanistan folks? Who do you reckon the punters would go with?
July 26th, 2007 at 5:13 pm
Woops… for the previous post
July 26th, 2007 at 5:36 pm
Well, he could go the whole Sheeds way, which is to see out the season (ie, one last election).
Can’t see him pulling out of Iraq. Wouldn’t please Dubya, and may lead to him not coming to APEC … Hey, that’s a thought. Hope he doesn’t read the blogs, Obby.
July 26th, 2007 at 6:46 pm
Rudd. Almost everyone I have talked to about this over the last 3-4 years thinks the Afghanistan part of the equation is justified, but the Iraq part isn’t. They believe that if we had concentrated on Afghanistan we would be miles ahead in both the ‘War on Terror’, and the international reputation ratings.
And I agree with them.
July 26th, 2007 at 8:53 pm
Although my point about Afghanistan was meant for the previous post I’ll respond here Seeker.
I agree with the assesments you make about Afghanistan vis a vis Iraq but you may well be talking about past tense. For many people faced with the choice now between ‘a pox on all their houses’, or stay the course in Afghanistan, I have a feeling most would choose the former. Don’t be fooled by middle class assessments here. There are a fair swag of voters who would take the ‘monkey country view’ of both, you can’t change these savages and we’re best right out of it all. That may not be pleasant to contemplate, but I think it’s very real. That’s where I think Rudd will ultimately run into problems with his ditch the ‘bad’ war, to concentrate on the ‘good’ war. We’ll see.
July 26th, 2007 at 9:16 pm
Anyhow this was a hypothetical about troop withdrawal.
The question I raised here is will Howard stand down and I think he will be forced to by a party that has to go into damage control. A 10 point difference in the 2pp vote would see the Coalition smashed Federally and out of power everywhere. All MPs with a 10% margin or less will know what that means. That will give Costello the numbers he has never had to date. Howard will stand down close to an election,(eleventh hour) so that he doesn’t need to take part in any electioneering. Clearly he can’t go so far out that requires a byelection. (Does anyone know the what that maxm would be?) The Coalition will have to rely upon Costello to interest the electorate enough for the future to take the limelight away from Rudd, now that the voters are not listening to Howard. The die is cast IMO, unless there is a dramatic turnaround in the polls soon.
July 26th, 2007 at 9:48 pm
Actually from this info from the AEC website, it would seem Howard can go any time now without the need for a byelection-
Whenever a vacancy occurs in the House of Representatives because of the death, resignation, absence without leave, expulsion, disqualification or ineligibility of a Member, a writ may be issued by the Speaker for the election of a new Member. A writ may also be issued when the Court of Disputed Returns declares an election void.
A by-election may be held on a date to be determined by the Speaker or in his or her absence from Australia by the Governor-General in Council. The polling must take place on a Saturday.
A by-election writ may also be issued by the Acting Speaker performing the duties of the Speaker during the Speaker’s absence from the Commonwealth. A writ has been issued by the Chairman of Committees as Deputy Speaker during the Speaker’s absence from the Commonwealth, and the Chairman of Committees as Deputy Speaker has informed the House of the Speaker’s intention to issue a writ.
There are no constitutional or statutory requirements that writs be issued for by-elections within any prescribed period.
The following cases have occurred:
with a general election pending, the Speaker has declined to issue a writ in order to avoid the need for two elections within a short period of time; and
a writ has been issued and then withdrawn by the Speaker when a dissolution of the House has intervened.
The guiding principle in fixing the date of a by-election has always been to hold the election as early as possible so that the electors are not left without representation any longer than is necessary.
July 26th, 2007 at 11:52 pm
The question I raised here is will Howard stand down and I think he will be forced to by a party that has to go into damage control.
Disagree - the stable door was bolted at least six months ago. To dump Howard at this late stage, the party room have to be convinced that Costello would do better, and most of the evidence suggests the contrary. Besides, quite aside from Costello’s hypothetical appeal or lack thereof, throwing Howard overboard now would give off an overwhelming vibe of panicky disarray. Cue Rudd to channel the Silver Bodgie circa 1987: “If you can’t govern your own party, how can…” etc, and you have the stuff of cold-sweat nightmares for Brian Loughnane et al.
I’ll think they’ll strap themselves in with Howard, however reluctantly. and hope that something turns up. Of course, I also thought that Sheeds was good for another couple of seasons.
July 27th, 2007 at 12:58 am
“To dump Howard at this late stage, the party room have to be convinced that Costello would do better,..”
That’s where I’d disagree timg. When you think about that massive and unprecedented 10% difference in the 2pp vote, they’d have to figure it couldn’t get any worse with a drover’s dog in charge. There’s only one way to go from there and that’s to close the gap and minimise the rout, even if they’re resigned to losing now. Costello as PM would radically focus the voter’s and the media’s attention away from Rudd and onto the new kid on the block. Like Rudd he would have the mandate to immediately change the direction of the Coalition, just like Rudd has on Tas forests and the like. He would have a free rein to blunt the Workchoices legislation, say by offering to legislate to allow free choice between AWAs and union awards and collective bargaining. As well he has the opportunity to change tack on Iraq and go even further than Rudd over Afghanistan. Clearly he would wait until Sept for Petraeus report on Iraq. No doubt the Govt would be party to the US Govt thinking on Iraq before it is released to the public. Suppose it became obvious that the US was planning to drawdown in Iraq come Sept. He could as PM fly to the US to organise an early pullout of Aust troops with Bush and perhaps Afghanistan too. If the Bush was planning to withdraw, he would have no problem allowing a faithful ally, facing an election, an easy exit in order to concentrate on problems close to home. If I were Costello I’d add Afghanistan to the troops home by Xmas and wedge Rudd totally. Lots of possibilities for the incoming cleanskin, just like Rudd has been doing. These sorts of changes might be enough to make quite a difference to the election result, even win. You never know, but one thing’s for sure, it couldn’t be worse than those polls predict now. Might even send Rudd and Co into meltdown. There’s plenty of precedence for such bold strikes and much for Labor to fear.
July 27th, 2007 at 1:17 am
Face the poll facts, APEC is Howard’s swansong and Costello will soon be PM. The only question now is for how long?
July 27th, 2007 at 9:12 am
Obs your Tip for Howard swap would make sense if the Libs were prepared to form a united bunch of enthusiastic Costello followers but there’s no way that’s going to happen. Too many of them have ambitions of their own and they’re not the type to place party ahead of self. Besides which some of them are genuinely convinced (probably correctly) that Costello would be a crap leader and would fight hard for someone else.
Once Howard goes … whatever the cause … the Libs will undergo a prolonged period of infighting. Costello doesn’t have the stature to exercise authority, nor does anyone else, but there’s a lot of wannabes who’ll be jockeying for position.
July 27th, 2007 at 10:24 am
Ken, what you say may well be true, but with that 2pp vote staring them all in the face, the one sure thing they all know now is, that same scenario is going to be true for them in Opposition without Howard anyway. It is inevitable that after the demise of their ‘Sheedy’, there will be some bickering, infighting and jockeying as to who will lead them back again. Political parties are no different from footy clubs in that respect. Those poll numbers have put a gun to their head and they have absolutely nothing to lose but perhaps something to gain(damage control) by changing leadership now. That’s why I think they’ll tap Howard on the shoulder. They simply have no choice, because the electorate have stopped listening to him. He will know it instinctively and will make the big sacrifice in all the right ways in order to further the interests of his party. Howard is out of the country and the hard heads will be talking together right now. As I said, a drover’s dog couldn’t do worse for them now.
July 27th, 2007 at 10:32 am
Ken, it would be an interesting exercise to look at all current Coalition MPs that have a margin of 10% or less and see how they stack up as Howard or Costello supporters and what those numbers would mean if they all changed to Costello. Anyone?
July 27th, 2007 at 10:41 am
They’re not all completely deluded so they knoiw they can’t stay in government indefinitely. The Turnbulls and Nelsons and Robbs might not be too unhappy about a spell in opposition. It would clear the decks of dead wood: I can’t see a lot of current government members hanging round for long if they lose. The new generation could therefore get to the top a lot quicker in opposition than under an indefinite period of Costello ascendancy.
Moreover I doubt if anyone on either side believes the current polling figures will hold until election day, or anything like them.
Anyway we’ll know soon enough if you’re right.
July 27th, 2007 at 11:30 am
If the polls were showing a consistent lead to Labor of say 6%, I’d say they’d stick with the old warhorse, but the 10% staring at them is untenable. They have nothing to lose at those levels, yet something to gain by changing. Ipso facto they will, unless that 10% changes dramatically and soon. Can’t see that happening can you? Watch for the big announcement by Howard.
July 27th, 2007 at 1:11 pm
“Costello as PM would radically focus the voter’s and the media’s attention away from Rudd and onto the new kid on the block”
Except that Costello ISN’t a new kid. He has been Treasurer and PM-in-Waiting for too long to be considered ‘new’.
Polling recently indicated that a change in PM to Howard would not alter most people’s voting decision. IMO that is partly because they are already factoring in the fact that, win or lose, Howard will not stick around for the full term and Costello will become PM.
July 27th, 2007 at 1:36 pm
Polly, you overlook that the electorate has short memories, or more precisely they are prepared to look at new faces with new policy directions. Rudd has been around the traps too and his party are pretty much the same party that tried to present Latham as the greatest thing since John Howard. Rudd has recently backflipped his party on many traditional Labor policies and the polls clearly show that’s no problem with the electorate. I think they’d be prepared to do the exactly the same with a new face and direction with the Coalition. Let’s put it this way, it would certainly make their decision a lot harder in the polling booth than it appears now and Costello’s experience may make him a formidable opponent on the hustings, to make their choice a lot tougher.
July 27th, 2007 at 1:56 pm
And a quick cabinet reshuffle for those new faces, coupled with their new direction and we may have us a contest again. At present it’s a lay down misere’.
July 27th, 2007 at 3:08 pm
Streuth it really is the Sheedy season
http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/bracks-resigns-as-premier/2007/07/27/1185339209648.html
July 27th, 2007 at 4:43 pm
And another
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22143819-29277,00.html
and…..?