Mission Accomplished?
Uncategorized - - Posted on January, 24 at 2:26 am by Eric Martin
Reuters is reporting that Ethiopian troops will begin withdrawing from the Somali capital of Mogadishu today. While the current Somali government has maintained, repeatedly, that the Ethiopian soldiers will be replaced with a contingent of peacekeepers from the African Union (made up of troops from several African nations), the willingness and ability of the African Union to muster and deploy such a force remains in doubt given its current commitments in Darfur and general logistical difficulties.
Further complicating the matter, playing referee to warring factions in Mogadishu is not exactly a plum assignment conducive to peacekeeping success, or light-footprinted deployments. Somalia’s notorious clan-based conflicts are not only limited to the current Somali government’s (TFG) battles with factions loyal to the ousted Islamic Courts Union (ICU). Even the TFG coalition has begun to splinter and fall prey to infighting.
Tim Lister explains the scope of the challenge:
Occupying Mogadishu, as U.S. and other forces found in the 1990s, is a perilous undertaking. A city of narrow streets and alleys and hundreds of wrecked buildings, it is perfect territory for snipers and suicide bombers. The Ethiopians say they want to withdraw from Somalia within weeks, aware of the potential quagmire it might otherwise become. Even on the day they entered Mogadishu, some Ethiopian convoys were attacked by crowds throwing stones. Two weeks later, an ambush of a Somali/Ethiopian convoy in the south of the city, where the Islamic Courts were strongest, left two people dead. The transitional government has declared martial law to try to bring order to the city.
Besides the Islamist threat, there is the task of subduing various clans that use checkpoints as a license for extortion and harass businesses. There is no police presence in Mogadishu, so that task will fall to soldiers of the transitional government and the Ethiopians….Within two weeks of the Islamists’ expulsion, there were signs of a resurgence in clan warfare. Several were killed in a firefight between TFG troops and militia of clan leader Mohamed Qanyare Afrah outside the Villa Somalia, the presidential residence. “Another Iraq is not going to happen in Somalia,” declared Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, but the Ethiopians are facing overlapping conflicts and rivalries that would be familiar to U.S. commanders in Baghdad.
Well, Prime Minister Meles may be able to make good on the vow that Somalia will not turn into another Iraq - for Ethiopian forces at least. Rather than opting to stick around, attending to the difficult task of establishing security and stability, the Ethiopians have one foot out the door. In that same article from just a few days ago, Tim Lister asked:
Will the Ethiopians now stay in Somalia to provide order or withdraw quickly and hope that the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) can establish its authority?
The answer to the first part of the question seems to be coming together already. As to Ethiopia’s intentions to support the long term success of the TFG, as I suggested earlier, for Ethiopia: “[d]estabilizing Somalia, and leaving it wracked with violence and disorder, is a feature not a bug.” At the very least, it isn’t worth the trouble to try to prevent (albeit, a cynical perspective).
Somalia is a regional rival with a long history of conflict with Ethiopia. The two nations have been feuding over contested borders, and the inclination of separatist ethnic/religious movements residing across those disputed borders, for decades. The notion that Ethiopia’s recent intervention in Somalia was born out of altruistic concern for the well being of the Somalis is beyond naive.
While the Ethiopian government had some legitimate gripes with the ICU, it is difficult to see any of these as a legitimate cassus belli. Instead, the invasion looks more and more like a regional powerplay designed to knock its rival off balance - while creating a domestic political windfall for the unpopular Ethiopian regime (and giving it license to further repress internal political rivals).
With that in mind, it becomes easier to appreciate the fact that for Ethiopia, the current state of play in Somalia - despite the likelihood of a descent into lawless violence - looks like Mission Accomplished.
Kind of makes all those conservative pundits who were breathlessly heaping praise on the prowess of Ethiopia’s military look a little silly. For these pundits, Ethiopia had unlocked the secret to military success that had thus far eluded us in Iraq: a combination of extreme indifference to civilian life, and relative non-attention from the meddlesome media. Cliff May, in a pique of infatuation, asked:
Maybe we can learn something from the Ethiopians in Somalia?
John Miller followed this up with even more over the top adulation:
…I can’t read the news today and keep from wondering whether we should airlift a few Ethiopian battalions into Baghdad.
Come to think of it, Miller and May might just have a point - even if not the one intended. If we could airlift a few Ethiopian battalions into Baghdad, maybe they could show us how to head for the exits.
Posted in Uncategorized |
January 24th, 2007 at 7:19 am
Eric, you might also be interested in this:
January 24th, 2007 at 8:44 am
Thanks for the link Gandhi. Interesting.
January 24th, 2007 at 8:46 am
Rubbish! Ethiopians are christian and simply didn’t want the Religion of Peace setting up shop right on their doorstep for obvious reasons. It’s called self-preservation. It’s why we’re in Iraq and Afghanistan too, but Ethiopians now have the benefit of hindsight so it’s kick arse, let that be a lesson to you and withdraw. We’ll be taking that attitude with Iran.
January 24th, 2007 at 8:59 am
Because we’re Christian and we don’t want the Religion of Peace setting up shop on our doorstep? I seeee … folks let’s just back up quietly, nobody make any sudden movements, the ambulance will be here shortly.
January 24th, 2007 at 9:10 am
Actually Eric we should maybe try the Ethiopian strategy in the Pacific region. Just go over to the Solomons or somewhere and whack the government, then withdraw saying ‘Pick a better one next time or we’ll come and do it again’.
Well actually there’s a potential problem in that some other country might come along and pick up the pieces in a way that’s against our interests.
But I guess the Ethiopians don’t have to worry about that because they’re under the protection of the world’s only superpower. I wonder how long it will be before China and India decide to test that assumption … and Russia sees an opportunity to reassert itself on the global stage.
Ah USA, the world’s first global hyperpower in a new 1000 year empire … for every bit of 20 years.
January 24th, 2007 at 10:04 am
Rubbish! Ethiopians are christian and simply didn’t want the Religion of Peace setting up shop right on their doorstep for obvious reasons.
See, here’s the thing, Ethiopia is about 51% Muslim, so, er, the Religion of Peace is them. Shop = Open!
Further, their problem isn’t with Islam per se, it is with a strong, unified Somali state that could challenge their regional ambitions, disputed borders and inspire restive ethnic/religious groups within its borders.
Don’t need Islam for that.
January 24th, 2007 at 10:06 am
Ah USA, the world’s first global hyperpower in a new 1000 year empire … for every bit of 20 years.
Sometimes I wonder if Bush isn’t really an agent of God. She works in mysterious ways ya know.
January 24th, 2007 at 10:34 am
Ask Zbigniew Brzezinski about Afghanistan.
January 24th, 2007 at 10:39 am
Observa, change your moniker to “Believa” mate. Unless the irony is intentional.
January 24th, 2007 at 12:00 pm
Well of course it’s not just because they came to Bali and New York http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,20977254-2702,00.html
January 24th, 2007 at 12:14 pm
She’ll be right mate eh?
http://www.smh.com.au/news/world/terrorists-open-new-front-in-indonesia/2007/01/23/1169518709432.html?s_cid=rss_smh
January 24th, 2007 at 1:16 pm
“Well of course it’s not just because they came to Bali and New York”
Somalis? Somali Muslims?
January 24th, 2007 at 1:21 pm
Nah obs the silly old Herald’s got it all wrong. The terrorists will only be emboldened if we pull out of Iraq … you really should pay more attention.
January 25th, 2007 at 4:27 am
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January 26th, 2007 at 2:35 pm
[...] Somalia under the microscope - Eric Martin continues his in-depth coverage of the current situation in Somalia here and here. [...]
February 21st, 2007 at 8:50 am
[...] At the end of Part II of this series (Part I is here), I mentioned that I would seek to analyze the wisdom of our support for Ethiopia’s invasion of Somalia as a part of our counterterrorism strategy generally speaking. In the meantime, I got sidetracked with a Part 2.5, and some related follow up posts. At long last I’ll turn to this aspect of the story, and in doing so, there are a few issues at play that I want to discuss. [...]