Hindsight silence
Post-invasion iraq - - Posted on October, 16 at 4:21 pm by Tim
A lot of pro-war supporters have changed their mind as the carnage and mismanagement have unfolded in Iraq. Having said from the beginning that people of goodwill could have disagreed about the wisdom of the invasion, I’m not inclined to demand apologies or mea culpas from each and every supporter of the war, though there are those who were so clearly motivated by nothing more than partisan support of the Bush Administration that maybe some acknowledgement of the cover they provided would be nice.
Anyway, if you are going to change your mind about whether it was a good idea or not, this strikes me as a poor way of expressing that acknowledgement. It is from Norman Geras, one of the key authors of the Euston Manifesto:
That is, had I been able to foresee, in January and February 2003, that the war would have the results it has actually had in the numbers of Iraqis killed and the numbers now daily dying, with the country (more than three years down the line) on the very threshold of civil war if not already across that threshold, I would not have felt able to support the war and I would not have supported it. Measured, in other words, against the hopes of what it might lead to and the likelihoods as I assessed them, the war has failed. Had I foreseen a failure of this magnitude, I would have withheld my support. Even then, I would not have been able to bring myself to oppose the war. As I have said two or three times before, nothing on earth could have induced me to march or otherwise campaign for a course of action that would have saved the Baathist regime. But I would have stood aside.
I admire him saying that the war has failed. Very few (in fact, none that I can think of) in the Australian pro-war camp have said anything like this, and in fact, some are still insisting that the WMD are there waiting to be found.
But really, how sincere is such acknowledgement when it contains no word of rebuke for George W. Bush, Donald Rumsfeld or whomever else we might legitimately hold accountable for the failure, but manages to take the usual swipe at the anti-war crowd, comparing them to appeasers of Hitler?:
Had I been of mature years during that time, I hope I would have supported the war against Nazism come what may, and not been one of the others, the nay-sayers. The same impulse was at work in my support for the Iraq war.
That’s some impulse: if he knew then (back in 2002-2003) what he knows now, he would’ve sat back quietly and not objected:
Even so, I am bound to acknowledge that, though I never expected an easy sequel in Iraq, much less a ‘cakewalk’, I did not anticipate a failure on this scale, and had I done so, I would have withheld support for the war without giving my voice to the opposition to it.
What an odd train of thought. It seems he would not have openly opposed the war because people like him would have accused him of supporting Saddam, of being an appeaser.
Here’s the thing: those who opposed the war did so for a number of reasons, including a fear that those conducting it had not planned the operation properly. For speaking out, they were labelled as Saddam lovers, amongst other things. But they spoke out anyway.
What comes through in his post, ultimately, is a singular refusal to blame the failure he now acknowledges on those who actually caused it, and an abiding desire to chastise, even demonise, those who came to same conclusion in 2003 that he has only come to now.
Posted in Post-invasion iraq |
October 16th, 2006 at 4:43 pm
Based on the situation at the time there was no case for humanitarian intervention in Iraq (forgetting for a moment that the “liberation” angle was only pushed post facto) and there was no conclusive, independent evidence for a pre-emptive strike.
Anyone who really cared about the welfare of the Iraq’s civilians (ie Tim’s people of goodwill) knew the truth before the war of aggression was launched. It was a needless war to further an idealogical agenda.
The people shedding crocodile tears were misinformend because they WANTED TO BE misinformed.
Sorry, Tim. I say screw them!
October 16th, 2006 at 7:20 pm
“Had I been of mature years during that time, I hope I would have supported the war against Nazism come what may, and not been one of the others, the nay-sayers. The same impulse was at work in my support for the Iraq war.”
What a crock of shit.
The war against Nazism had nothing to do with Hitler being “bad”.
Who gave a rat’s arse when Hitler was killing gypsies commies and jews? Did any “Leader” say we must go and get Hitler because he’s bad to his people? Utter bullshit. Stop clinging even to this most implausable “reason” you keep stored in your conscience along with maybe Saddam’s WMD’s will really be found in Syria.
Get f$kin’ used to it.
Iraq is a murderous, digusting disaster and you supported it because you are fucking dumb!
October 16th, 2006 at 7:37 pm
Sadly, Norm doesn’t take comments on his blog. But then again, what’s the point in engaging with such people?
October 16th, 2006 at 8:47 pm
Hitler was the aggressor and in control of the most efficient and well armed military force on the planet.
Remind you of anyone?
October 16th, 2006 at 9:12 pm
Hey Mars, yes it does.Are we seeing history repeat again, where the aggressor loses.
October 16th, 2006 at 9:38 pm
Sorry Muskiemp, the aggressor lost because all the other major nations of the world (including the largest empire of the time) united and fought back.
It also helps when the aggressor’s propaganda ISN’T pumped to all points of the compass… Joseph Goebbels would have had bags of fun with today’s setup.
October 16th, 2006 at 9:52 pm
Do one really need to be a rocket scientist to understand the difference between being against the war and being supportive of Saddam?
Instead of taking a swipe at anti-war demonstrators even during his mea culpa, why didn’t he mention some real supporters of Saddam, like the envoy who shook his hands in 1983, or the adminstration that blocked efforts to sanction him after the kurds gassing, or the Bush lapdog who chose not to see the inconvenient truth when AWB was channelling 300million dollars to him?
October 16th, 2006 at 9:52 pm
Poor Norm - life must be very confusing for our chums on the right. More confusion can be found at the source of Tim Blair’s eccentric claims about Iraq’s WMD. The source cites, as further evidence of Iraq’s chemical weapons arsenal, the discovery of a number of shells that did not contain any chemical agents. Touche, Timbo.
October 16th, 2006 at 10:07 pm
I’m against the Prohibition of Liquor because I think it’s almost impossible to enforce with the resources on hand and plays into the hands of organised crime.
Does that mean that I favour alcohol abuse?
October 16th, 2006 at 11:04 pm
The headlines in the West Australian said it all for me this morning Oct 16 2006.
OUR BOYS MAY JOIN N.KOREA BLOCKADE.
I thought here we go again.
October 16th, 2006 at 11:10 pm
No- it means you’re a drunk wanting cheap booze like all the other leftie, French Old Europe, NZed’s and Russians.
Hey- I could get into this.
October 17th, 2006 at 12:44 am
Geras’ fantastic cognitive dissonance reminds me of Jack Strocchi when he eventually conceded he was wrong to support the invasion of Iraq. You can sense in these guys that their antipathy for the language and agenda of the left tipped them into supporting this 650,000 mass-murder out of sheer intellectual spite. Makes them more culpable than the average raving mindless rwdbs, for mine.
Personal scruples about being associated with icky disgusting peaceniks is enough to push them to turn a blind eye to the atrocity of military conquests.
Not only should people like these have known better, they actually did know beter. But could not put partisan politics aside.
October 17th, 2006 at 9:13 am
Yesterday I listened to some of the labor party’s censure motion in parliament based on Johnnie’s involvement in the Iraq war. Bronwyn Bishop’s speech was a beauty - lots of of not cutting and running. At last labor is on the front foot. Hoped to hear more on the “lefty” ABC news at night only to see the parliamentry report all about the “banning” of non union reporters at some SA function. This morning on the BBC a much more interesting report about the options to get out of Iraq, including quotes from James Baker appearing on the Daily Show. Its on the internet - a must see. Seems we are going to be last out. With regard to balance of opinion on the ABC - they might find themselves flooded with compaints from the left
October 17th, 2006 at 9:25 am
I forgot to add I’m down in Tassie at the bottom of the world - even i and many fellow tasmanians new the war was a con.
October 17th, 2006 at 9:26 am
Hoped to hear more on the “lefty” ABC news at night only to see the parliamentry report all about the “banning” of non union reporters at some SA function.
The 7pm news is just appalling - I had the same reaction last night. Nearly every story with a connection is framed via the PM’s take on things. As I said on the other post - all this crap about balance is just an attempt to work the refs. Successfully.
October 17th, 2006 at 9:42 am
My feeling exactly. There’s a whole bunch of reasons why some people WANTED to start a needless war in Iraq. Even in Washington DC it was a matter of several groups, each with their own agenda, bading together to make their wishes come true. The Bible-thumpers, the bigots, the bed-wetters, the militarists, the bed-wetters, the fundamentalist capitalists, the chickenhawks, the political opportunists, the Israel lobby, the empire builders…
In the more mundane world of the “man in the street” many lacked the scepticism, time, resources, curiosity and -let’s face it- education to ferret out the truth. They weren’t equipped to make an informed decision. Sadly the (anglo) corporate media didn’t help matters. In such an environment the right-wing bloggers, who set themselves up as being “in the know” and honest with their readers should have been able to see this fiaso coming. Certainly they had access to the same resources as those who opposed the war. The only things holding them back was the WILL to present the facts as they were and the honesty to recognise their own blind prejudice.
October 17th, 2006 at 10:08 am
Sh*t I hope not…remember the final years of Vietnam?…the Aussie soldiers deserve better than being left in outer-Baghdad Hell to be used as target practice by bitter insurgents wanting to exact revenge on anyone associated w/ the American Military Industrial Machine.
Dear old Bronwyn is a hangover from the 50s/early 60s w/ barely an original thought…reminds me of those teachers i had back at primary school, fashion disasters pretending to be attack dogs when they’re really seen as ‘old grumble bums’. Ya gotta luv her tenacity tho…kinda quaint…:)
And yes, Labor is definately on the front foot…& moving forward w/ a darn site more confidence & integrity. As is Bob Brown & Andrew Bartlett.
Luv yer sparkling apple cider…best in the world me thinks…:)…my step-dad’s from Tassy, he’s pretty clued in too.
October 17th, 2006 at 10:38 am
Is Andrew Wilkie going to run in Bennelong again next year? The timing is right this time.
October 17th, 2006 at 11:15 am
Sorry seems to be the hardest word for Norm, but he’s not the Lone Ranger. At least he hasn’t vanished from the face of the earth, or at least the internet, like that John Wojdylo from Webdiary - remember him Tim? Geras’s lofty academic hauteur is redolent of that twat’s style; a vehicle with which to shroud prejudice, groupthink and spite. Jack Robertson on the 5th anniversary of 911 wrote Wojdylo a long letter, revisiting the even longer sermons JW wrote pro the war and anti the protestors:
http://webdiary.com.au/cms/?q=node/1642/print&PHPSESSID=80db0c533c5bde5e2628f3078c02fe66
It remains unanswered as far as I can tell. Perhaps Wojdylo, who used my lack of academic qualification as an excuse not to engage with my criticism, is off busying himself with one of his polymathic interests, like German theatre or theoretical physics:
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2002/12/09/1039379776841.html?oneclick=true
Babs mentions Jack Strocchi, and he too fits the bill here, though in a lighter weight division. And Jack at least had the grace, and the guts to say ‘I was wrong’. Babs also limns briefly a very important psychological trait of the War Party eggheads:
‘Personal scruples about being associated with icky disgusting peaceniks is enough to push them to turn a blind eye to the atrocity of military conquests.’
It is difficult to quantify how much this attitude (perhaps learned behaviour, from fathers or father surrogates? check out CL for a prime example) contributes to wingnuttia, but my feeling is ‘heaps’. Even Orwell wasn’t immune with his ’sandal wearing’ pacifists.
I can remember a few of the blokes I see at the pool every day being blindsided by my mention in Feb 03 that I was marching against the war. ‘You wouldn’t catch me with that lot’, ‘bloody protestors, whingers and lowlifes, Abos and hippes and feminazis’ etc. I pulled them up a bit short when I asked them if there was nothing they would protest against. The consensus seemed to be that, ‘well yes I suppose there is, but jeez this is Australia Glenn, we don’t need to protest anything’. The pressure to conform is present everywhere I suppose, but we have no shortage of it here.
‘That was then’ was a decent thread Tim (with wronnie, Pat and friends). On it Nabakov laments the lack of prewar Surfdom comments, which I echoed. NoWar Blog likewise is barren, but not only that, evidence of prewar prescience is difficult to find anywhere on the superhighway, though we all know there was plenty of it about. It would come in handy when dealing with diehards like Norm.
‘I forgot to add I’m down in Tassie at the bottom of the world - even i and many fellow tasmanians new the war was a con.’
I have only the standard five fingers on each hand unfortunately, but I do have some Tassie ancestry which I hope will stand me in good stead when we are all lining up to get off the dry skillet of the southern mainland, avoiding Bill Heffernan rounding everyone up with a whip (provenance unknown) to migrate to the Ord River.
I see on the Weather Channel that conditions are cool and dam capacity is at 81% - tasty, but then I hear there’s bushfires on the very slopes of Mt Wellington upon which I intended to ride out the warming, the dry, Peak Oil, the Terror. Then yesterday, they had frost!
If anywhere is considered an optimal retreat the ’smart money’ will jump the queue as it always does. I believe remote parts of NZ zand Tasssie are already seeing a quiet influx of serious money from London and New York, leaving some longtime locals less than gruntled. Us small fry can just fry I guess. A good excuse for one more beer, on a hot day.
October 17th, 2006 at 10:11 pm
I offer three examples of pre-war prescience.
“This war will have horrible consequences. Instead of having one bin Laden we will have a hundred.” – Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, March 2003
“If they [the coalition forces] are seen overwhelmingly as invaders, a nightmare future beckons- where the territory of Iraq might be transformed into a vast a smoldering West Bank.”
“The idea that genuine security can be attained by an act certain to incite the hatred of a large part of humanity seems close to madness.” – Robert Manne, April 2003
“A blazing ember in the powder keg would be a dream scenario for the future rise of Islamic fascist fundamentalism. It would be Osama bin Laden’s dream come true- and Australia, and the world’s nightmare.” – Hobart Mercury, September 2002
Im sure a proper investigation of the papers at the time would dig up a hell of a lot more. It might also be worth noting the way in which the Australian was characterizing it’s opponents back in 2003.
“Remember the quagmire? Remember the bloody campaign in which we were going to be bogged down, before being caught in street by street fighting , only to end up in a bloody intifada?”
October 18th, 2006 at 12:20 am
Yes but just think, years from now when our SAS boys have long left Iraq. Their work finaly done, leaving a piece of the Aussie spirit with the natives. And then reminiscing over a beer, right there on the big screen TV they see the captain of the Fallujah cricket team winning the toss against the touring Baggy Green, wouldn’t you with a tear in your eye raise a glass to this and call it all worth while?
October 18th, 2006 at 8:01 am
Good stuff about the reasons why supporters of the war have so much trouble facing up to reality here.
It’s not just reluctance to admit they were wrong all along, it’s despair at the thought of losing the emotional investment they’ve made in their cause. As Schwartz argues, it’s like spending more and more money fixing up your crap car because you don’t want to get rid of it because you won’t get any return on the thousands of dollars you already spent trying to fix it up. Which reminds me, did I tell you guys about my TX3? Oh nvm.
October 18th, 2006 at 9:49 am
You’re right Chris, there’s a lot of evidence of prescience (or simply common sense) remaining - some astute pols, experts like Ritter and Wilkie, and the occasional commentator, all of whom were ignored and despite being overwhelmingly correct, are still being ignored.
I guess what I was driving at was the difficulty of finding what millions of nobodies like myself were saying back then. Some of the forums I participated in prewar have no archives, fair enough, but in looking for particular comments I made years ago, only the last few years show any results, with the exception of Webdiary, where the comments were never ‘below the fold’ - they were on the page itself. I guess it has something to do with the fact that comments generally were separate, and perhaps they were often just wiped when a site folded. It’s a pity - those who can’t remember what they said in the past are condemned to repeat themselves!
October 18th, 2006 at 11:04 pm
One thing that can’t be wiped from history is that the largest street protests ever held in Australia demonstrated that there were very large numbers of Australians who were vehemently opposed to our attack on Iraq. John Howard ignored the democratic will, evaded the democratic process and must now be wondering what the hell he was thinking.
October 19th, 2006 at 2:52 am
[...] There are a number of bloggers who have responded to Norm’s confession, but I’ve found Tim Dunlop’s (The Road to Surfdom) to be sufficiently reasoned and angry at normblog’s cognitive dissonance. [...]
October 19th, 2006 at 5:50 am
Yeah, its Bush’s and Rumsfield fault completely, for which they owe us all a big fat apology, that they couldn’t imagine a scenario where a dozen felalfel stand operators would be executed because felafale didn’t exist in the time of the prophet, bpuh.
Get real, Dude: there will indeed be a downside if the stoppers get their way.
Since the “liberations” in 1975 of the Lao Peoples Democratic Republic, and the Socialist Republic of Vietnam (not to mention Democratic Kampuchua), due no small thanks to the veterans wing of the antiwar movement, of which I was a loud and righteous element back when, and where I have lived and worked for nearly a decade altogether since then, there has been zero basic political freedom. Not to mention the re-education camps, the boat people, the Khmer Rouge nightmare, and the excellent transformation of the apparat into the bourgeosie, wonderfully protected against criticicism and transparency by the full panoply of Leninist state power. And these guys total Jeffersonians compared to the Jihadis.
October 19th, 2006 at 11:34 am
Sorry folks, a wee bit off topic but I just had to post this link:-
http://www.firstworldwar.com/posters/australia.htm
Be sure to check the other propaganda poster pages. Anyone spot any parallels with the “GWoT” b*ll*cks we keep being fed?
It’s rather dissapointing. You’d think after 90 years we wouldn’t be in danger of falling for the same messages in a form that’s only barely more subtle.
I particularly like the “The Crime of Those Who Vote NO” one myself.
October 19th, 2006 at 12:15 pm
Comments don’t seem to be updating correctly.
October 19th, 2006 at 7:06 pm
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